2011: MLB Draft Breakdown
By: Austin Alexander, June 7-9, 2011 In a year that professional scouts will admit there was more prep talent in South Carolina than recent years, 12 young men managed to have their names called over the three-day event. The longer you follow the draft, the more you think you understand it. Just the opposite is true, however! Any baseball sage will tell you it is really a crapshoot! Many variables come into play when you sit back and look at the picks, the rounds they fell in and the names that get passed over. One term people must understand is “signability”. Especially near the top of the draft. In many cases, most of the players selected in the first 4-7 Rounds are similar in ability. Maybe in the Top 15 Rounds? Conventional wisdom tells you that the first pick in the draft must be the best player and that the last pick is the 1,530th best player in the country. Not so. A player’s signability can vault him near the top of the board; low signability can force that player to fall through the draft entirely. Scouts often spend more time researching a player’s signability than they do evaluating their talent. We’ve all heard of clubs that take a kid in the top two rounds and cannot come to terms with him. Sometimes it is because the area scout has not done his due research or he would have known better than to select that player that high in the draft. But it has also happened before that a player and his family or advisor was not truthful as to their dollar figure. Sometimes a player’s "advisor" or his known desire to attend school will force his draft stock to fall, though he may be a first rounder ability-wise. A couple of examples: In 2006, Florida University first baseman Matt LaPorta fell to the 15th round and 433rd pick of the draft. It was believed LaPorta was a sure-fire first-rounder but in the days before the draft he hired agent Scott Boras to represent him. Boras’ reputation with big-leaguers is well-earned as he has some of the top clients in the game. But, some big league organizations had begun a trend, however, of steering away from his players in recent drafts to avert expensive, drawn-out negotiations. As high school seniors, South Carolina products Justin Smoak and Reese Havens were projected to go high in the draft. In the moments leading up to early picks for the Boston Red Sox, both were contacted once more in an attempt to agree to terms before they were selected. Both declined lucrative deals citing that their intention was to play college baseball. As a result, Smoak fell to the 16th round, Havens to the 29th. Both were later selected in 1st Round as college juniors out of USC. In each case, though for opposite reasons, these players had a “low signability” tag, thus falling to lower rounds. Clubs have until midnight of August 15th to agree to terms with a draft pick. Some of the early rounders will forego the drama and sign quickly so they can begin their journey to the big leagues. Others will drag it out until the deadline in an attempt to drain every penny out of a club. Many players chosen will continue to be under the watchful eye of the organization that selected them in case they make a significant jump during the summer, in which the club may, then, offer a contract or "up the ante" in an attempt to sign the player. Draft picks are made largely on a players present “tools” and how he “projects” down the road. Many selections will turn the heads of baseball people. More selections will blow the mind of casual fans because the layman only sees black or white, ie. base hit versus out, win versus loss. Understand, just because a pitcher strikes out Tanner English does not automatically vault that arm to prospect status. If a good high school pitcher beats Stratford High School with Taylor Guerrieri on the mound, it does not mean he will see his name on a draft board. When a "punching judy" flairs one into the outfield off of Andrew Faulkner, that does not guarentee that he will even play past high school. If a fast runner steals two bases off of Grayson Greiner, it does not necessarily mean he has a future in professional baseball! See where I am going with this? Scouting is not a science. Players do get over-scouted and some do get over-looked. By in large, however, these guys who scout for a living are good at what they do. VERY good, in fact! They run up tens of thousands of miles riding the countryside away from their families looking for the next David Price and Josh Hamilton. Sure, they’ll miss on guys from time to time but they are still smarter than most of us and their eyes keener than you can imagine. Did they find the next MLB All-Star in our state in 2011? Only time will tell. Below we have broken down the 2011 Draft: *Note: Players accounted for either played high school or college baseball in South Carolina this spring. Selected Day 1 (1st Rd) Day 2 (2-30 Rds) Day 3 (31-50 Rds) Total SC Players 2 28 19 49 College players 1 23 13 37 HS players 1 5 6 12 Pitchers 1 14 10 25 Catchers 0 2 3 5 Infielders 0 8 2 10 Outfielders 1 4 4 9 Division I 1 20 12 33 Division II 0 1 0 1 Junior College 0 1 0 1 HS 4A 1 4 4 9 HS 3A 0 1 0 1 HS 2A 0 0 2 2 Rd 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 * 10 11 9 7 12 By College: 11-South Carolina, 8-Clemson, 5-Coastal Carolina, 4-College of Charleston, 2-Winthrop, six others with one apiece. -2010 MLB Draft in Review- Selected Day 1 (1-3 rds) Day 2 (4-30 rds) Day 3 (31-50) Total SC Players 2 29 16 47 College players 2 24 12 38 HS players 0 5 6 11 Pitchers 1 16 12 29 …